AL152023 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation

Forecast	Index	Consistency
24hr	1.03	Fair

Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast

name	totloss

type	loss
Total Forecast Impact:

National Level Population Impact Forecast

country_name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge

name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Total:

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!

Model Performance Summary

tech	err012	err024	err048	err072	err096	err120	trend
AEMN	32	43	76	115	176	266	INCREASING
AVNO	35	48	86	133	250	270	INCREASING
CEMN	45	62	92	142	253	248	INCREASING
CLP5	57	128	285	381	425	495	INCREASING
CMC	61	80	122	166	281	288	INCREASING
EGRR	29	39	66	109	174	295	INCREASING
HMON	37	50	95	131	175	211	INCREASING
HURN	63	131	290	406	-1	-1	INCREASING
HWRF	41	61	97	128	178	252	INCREASING
NVGM	47	49	65	123	208	398	INCREASING
OFCL	20	37	65	116	237	495	INCREASING
TABD	42	76	148	207	256	298	CONSTANT
TABM	40	71	126	156	175	228	INCREASING
TABS	49	86	139	156	178	283	INCREASING
TVCE	33	56	96	136	186	250	INCREASING
TVCN	32	55	93	146	202	280	INCREASING
UKM	28	39	64	107	174	292	INCREASING
XTRP	67	159	366	521	673	899	INCREASING

(18 rows)

Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast