AL172023 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation

Forecast	Index	Consistency
24hr	0.97	Good
48hr	2.16	Poor

Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast

name	totloss
Anguilla	$ .02 Million USD
Antigua and Barbuda	$ .28 Million USD
Bermuda	$ 15.08 Million USD
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba	$ .06 Million USD
British Virgin Islands	$ .10 Million USD
Canada	$ 4.27 Million USD
Dominica	$ .00 Million USD
Guadeloupe	$ 2.74 Million USD
Montserrat	$ .03 Million USD
Puerto Rico	$ .00 Million USD
Saint-Barthélemy	$ .02 Million USD
Saint Kitts and Nevis	$ .26 Million USD
Saint-Martin	$ .11 Million USD
Sint Maarten	$ .11 Million USD
United States	$ .22 Million USD
Virgin Islands, U.S.	$ .08 Million USD

type	loss
Total Forecast Impact:	$ 23.38 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast

country_name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Anguilla	15,092
Antigua and Barbuda	96,947
Bermuda	66,842
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba	8,319
British Virgin Islands	17,942
Canada	399,123
Guadeloupe	289,355
Montserrat	4,515
Saint-Barthélemy	11,872
Saint Kitts and Nevis	61,068
Saint-Martin	46,179
Sint Maarten	31,474
United States	52,602
Virgin Islands, U.S.	10,188

name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Total:	1,111,518

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!

Model Performance Summary

tech	err012	err024	err048	err072	err096	err120	trend
AEMN	58	92	160	236	310	404	INCREASING
AVNO	66	105	177	257	381	475	INCREASING
CEMN	58	92	143	189	275	372	INCREASING
CLP5	46	86	171	270	375	500	INCREASING
CMC	64	87	136	183	278	387	INCREASING
EGRR	57	79	136	199	265	368	INCREASING
HMON	56	84	139	212	340	526	INCREASING
HURN	47	91	192	304	-1	-1	INCREASING
HWRF	46	79	147	232	350	517	INCREASING
NVGM	58	93	160	248	389	559	INCREASING
OFCL	39	69	128	209	317	426	INCREASING
RYOC	31	45	61	136	366	537	INCREASING
TABD	48	96	206	353	522	755	INCREASING
TABM	40	67	136	249	360	491	INCREASING
TABS	52	95	165	211	307	454	INCREASING
TVCE	43	70	123	190	286	405	INCREASING
TVCN	44	72	130	200	297	411	INCREASING
UKM	57	78	135	200	265	375	INCREASING
XTRP	49	92	211	341	468	618	INCREASING

(19 rows)

Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast