Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.
JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast.
If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent.
Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair,
and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor.
Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight.
A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!
National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name
totloss
type
loss
Total Forecast Impact:
National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
Total:
Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts.
Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.
Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the
European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model
The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech
err012
err024
err048
err072
err096
err120
trend
AEMN
49
64
102
101
-1
-1
INCREASING
AVNO
58
66
120
140
-1
-1
INCREASING
CEMN
61
67
58
84
-1
-1
INCREASING
CLP5
70
109
156
275
-1
-1
INCREASING
CMC
68
68
80
111
-1
-1
INCREASING
EGRR
12
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
HMON
64
103
129
138
-1
-1
INCREASING
HURN
75
116
180
211
-1
-1
INCREASING
HWRF
57
88
150
153
-1
-1
INCREASING
NVGM
87
93
79
86
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABD
67
130
237
370
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABM
63
107
186
303
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABS
56
64
98
131
-1
-1
INCREASING
TVCE
51
76
99
77
-1
-1
INCREASING
TVCN
53
77
92
71
-1
-1
INCREASING
UKM
17
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
XTRP
77
116
189
291
-1
-1
INCREASING
(17 rows)
Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable. Intensity Forecast Report generated by proxima.methaz.org at Thu 28 Sep 2023 11:12:32 UTC
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