Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
OFCL Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast.
If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent.
Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair,
and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor.
Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight.
A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!
National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name
totloss
type
loss
Total Forecast Impact:
National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
Total:
Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts.
Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.
Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the
European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model
The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech
err012
err024
err048
err072
err096
err120
trend
AEMN
54
69
64
118
-1
-1
INCREASING
AVNO
54
75
79
138
-1
-1
CONSTANT
CEMN
42
61
63
84
140
-1
INCREASING
CLP5
58
113
143
136
53
-1
INCREASING
CMC
27
53
88
119
169
-1
INCREASING
EGRR
39
70
47
23
-1
-1
INCREASING
HMON
12
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
CONSTANT
HURN
66
211
-1
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
HWRF
29
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
CONSTANT
NVGM
56
71
65
167
-1
-1
INCREASING
OFCL
31
51
-1
-1
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABD
62
123
216
405
744
-1
INCREASING
TABM
52
88
146
261
452
-1
INCREASING
TABS
54
90
93
142
254
-1
INCREASING
TVCE
53
80
114
154
-1
-1
INCREASING
TVCN
51
78
123
166
-1
-1
INCREASING
UKM
39
73
41
23
-1
-1
INCREASING
XTRP
66
141
198
252
316
-1
INCREASING
(18 rows)
Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable. Intensity Forecast Report generated by proxima.methaz.org at Sun 17 Sep 2023 03:28:10 UTC
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