Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview
CAUTION!
This simulation is NOT based on the official forecast track! It is using the AVNO model.
More than likely this is because it is an invest area and does not have an official track yet.
JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation
Forecast
Index
Consistency
Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast.
If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent.
Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair,
and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor.
Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight.
A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!
National Level Economic Impact Forecast
name
totloss
type
loss
Total Forecast Impact:
National Level Population Impact Forecast
country_name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
name
pop_tswind
pop_huwind
pop_surge
Total:
Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts.
Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.
Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the
European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model
The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!
Model Performance Summary
tech
err012
err024
err048
err072
err096
err120
trend
AEMN
51
75
172
216
228
-1
INCREASING
AVNO
56
75
186
247
348
-1
INCREASING
CEMN
50
80
140
161
135
-1
INCREASING
CLP5
37
65
100
175
169
-1
INCREASING
CMC
48
78
168
236
278
-1
INCREASING
EGRR
41
60
83
111
90
-1
INCREASING
HMON
48
86
243
359
-1
-1
INCREASING
HURN
65
108
172
210
-1
-1
INCREASING
HWRF
52
74
166
267
-1
-1
CONSTANT
NVGM
55
83
111
110
-1
-1
INCREASING
TABD
50
108
220
279
128
-1
INCREASING
TABM
40
78
147
152
180
-1
INCREASING
TABS
33
53
96
70
61
-1
INCREASING
TVCE
36
70
157
190
-1
-1
CONSTANT
TVCN
35
61
131
163
-1
-1
INCREASING
UKM
43
61
84
112
95
-1
INCREASING
XTRP
39
62
115
189
215
-1
INCREASING
(17 rows)
Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable. Intensity Forecast Report generated by proxima.methaz.org at Thu 23 Nov 2023 11:08:59 UTC
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