WP122024 Impact Assessment

Official Forecast (or best model for invest) Overview

JTWC Forecast Consistency Evaluation

Forecast	Index	Consistency
24hr	0.81	Good
48hr	0.81	Good

Objective Model Dispersion Evaluation

Forecast

Index

Consistency

Forecast consistency is based on how much difference there is between this forecast and a previous forecast. If the variation between the current forecast and the forecast made 24 hours previously is less than half of the average error, consistency is Excellent. Between half and the average, Good, between the average and 1.5 times the average Fair, and if over 1.5 times the average historical error consistency isconsidered Poor. Note that consistency is different from accuracy, but accuracy can only be determined in hindsight. A consistent forecast is more likely to be accurate than one that is jumping around, but it could be consistently wrong!

National Level Economic Impact Forecast

name	totloss
China	$ 21,112.26 Million USD
Hong Kong	$ .00 Million USD
Laos	$ .88 Million USD
Macao	$ .00 Million USD
Philippines	$ .02 Million USD
Vietnam	$ 31,763.76 Million USD

type	loss
Total Forecast Impact:	$ 52,876.92 Million USD

National Level Population Impact Forecast

country_name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
China	37,424,802	9,120,090	1,976,296
Laos	61,884
Philippines	49,795
Vietnam	36,468,596	24,125,461	13,214

name	pop_tswind	pop_huwind	pop_surge
Total:	74,005,077	33,245,551	1,989,510

Forecast Tracks
Raw tropical cyclone models are usually called early or late. Early models are those that run in time to be included in the official forecasts. Late models are more complex global models that take several hours to run, and the most recent run is not available for the forecaster to use in creating their products.

Up to four Ensemble Model outputs are shown (if available). The first is the US GFS model (AEMN). The second is from the Canadian Meteorological Center(CEMN). The third is the European Center for Medium Range Forecasting model (EEMN), and the fourth the US Navy GEM model

The maps here update hourly, and are solely to give you an idea of the information and challenges facing the forecaster. The official forecast is what you should be basing your decisions on!

Model Performance Summary

tech	err012	err024	err048	err072	err096	err120	trend
AEMN	25	45	77	121	249	486	INCREASING
AVNO	22	33	51	66	106	104	INCREASING
CEMN	36	76	154	251	393	508	INCREASING
CMC	31	59	123	181	287	566	INCREASING
JMAE	26	42	71	98	195	338	INCREASING
JTWC	24	35	47	46	90	204	INCREASING
NVGM	35	45	65	86	202	772	INCREASING
RJTD	36	39	51	57	129	261	INCREASING
UKM	20	22	34	49	58	27	INCREASING

(9 rows)

Notes:
Average error in nautical miles for this storm as of latest forecast model run. -1 means unavailable.

Intensity Forecast